How I Think
My name is Matthew McGuire, and over the course of my life I’ve had the good fortune to live and work across several continents—in government, business, and academia. I’ve served at the state and federal levels, run welfare-to-work programs, advised on global financial policy, and earned a Ph.D. along the way. Each experience has given me a different window into how the world works—and how, more often than not, the stories we tell ourselves about data and progress miss what’s happening in the middle.
There’s more information flowing around us now than ever before. Every screen, every feed, every headline comes at us with numbers and analysis. But I’ve learned that the most meaningful measure is often not the average—it’s the median.
Medians matter most. The median shows where half of people fall below and half above.
It’s a clearer picture of reality, especially when we’re talking about things like wealth, wages, or opportunity. The average can be distorted by extremes; the median tells you what life looks like for most people.
At this stage in my life, what I enjoy most is connecting these dots—helping to explain how economics, policy, and lived experience intersect. If my reflections can make complex ideas a little clearer, or help people with very different perspectives better understand each other, then that’s time well spent.
The Economy and You
When people talk about the economy, we often hear big, abstract terms—GDP growth, stock indexes, futures markets. But those terms don’t always reflect what most people feel in their daily lives. When the economy slows, the impact shows up not in charts, but in people losing jobs, homes, or a sense of stability.
That’s why I try to look at the economy through a human lens.
For instance, half of Americans—the bottom 50%—own just 1% of the stock market, while the top 1% own half of it.
So, while market swings might dominate the headlines, they don’t determine the financial reality for most families.
What matters far more are wages, housing, and the quality of schools—because those shape opportunity and hope.
If I were to design policy priorities, I’d spend 80% of my time thinking about the half of the country below the median. That’s where the American dream either lives or fades. And to strengthen it, we need to see how everything—jobs, mortgages, regulation, and spending—is deeply connected.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
Right now in America, the median full-time salary is about $43,000 a year. That’s a tough number to build a life on, especially for anyone trying to raise a family.
A recent study showed that to afford the median mortgage—roughly $300,000—you’d need to earn about $127,000 a year. That’s nearly three times the median salary. It means that for many hardworking people, homeownership, once the cornerstone of the American dream, feels increasingly out of reach.
This isn’t just a matter of finances; it’s a matter of stability and dignity. When people can’t afford a decent place to live on a full-time income, it strains families, communities, and the broader economy.
That’s why jobs—and not just any jobs, but good jobs that pay a livable wage—are central to how I think about America’s future.
Because when jobs provide security, everything else starts to work too.
Foreign Policy
At its core, foreign policy is about how we show up in the world—how the United States engages with the 95% of humanity that lives beyond our borders.
Our government builds alliances, negotiates trade agreements, and works to keep Americans safe. But foreign policy is s also about something deeper: how our actions shape relationships, trust, and influence across the globe.
When I served as U.S. Executive Director at the World Bank, I used to remind my colleagues of two things:
- First, trouble travels. Whether it’s conflict, pandemics, or financial crises, what happens abroad rarely stays there. We need to be smart and proactive in recognizing where instability might spread and how to address it early.
- Second, when you’re Goliath don’t go around creating a bunch of Davids. The US is Goliath and our strength lies in building partnerships, not resentment. The more we are connected, respected, and engaged, the stronger we become as a nation. That’s true for our security, our economy, and our place in the world.
The Public and the Private
Lately, I’ve been thinking a lot about the relationship between the public and private sectors—and how often they’re portrayed as being in conflict.
In reality, they’re deeply intertwined.
The federal government alone makes up about a quarter of our economy, and most of that money flows directly into the pockets of American families and businesses.
Too often, we hear calls to shrink the public sector as if doing so would automatically boost growth. But if the government accounts for 25% of our economy, cutting it also means cutting growth, jobs, and stability.
The truth is, there are many areas—healthcare, infrastructure, education—where profit alone doesn’t sustain what society needs. Hospitals are a good example. Many are privately owned and run by private citizens, yet they rely heavily on Medicare and Medicaid funding to operate.
Rather than seeing the public and private sectors as opposing forces, we need to see them as partners. A healthy, functioning society depends on both working together—each doing what it does best.